Tesla Investors Await Critical Crash Data on March 9
Tesla (TSLA 1.52%) is expected to deliver crucial crash data on potential full-self driving (FSD) traffic violations to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on or before March 9. The data is part of an NHTSA investigation and holds significant importance for Tesla investors.
Understanding the Data
While the data is meaningful, it’s essential not to overplay or underplay its significance. The NHTSA identified only 58 incidents when it opened the investigation, and Tesla has reported 14 incidents involving its robotaxis since their inception in June 2025. The data spans the early days of FSD to more recent days and is likely to mainly cover older versions of FSD.
Robotaxi Incident Updates
Context is required when analyzing the robotaxi crash reports. The robotaxi collision rate of about one in every 57,000 miles is often compared to Tesla’s own estimate that the U.S. average driver has a major collision every 660,000 miles and a minor collision every 222,000 miles. However, this is an apples-to-oranges comparison, as robotaxis drive in relatively restricted urban areas.
Using the average trip length of 4.3 miles, estimated by Alphabet’s Waymo, we can calculate that one collision occurs in approximately 13,289 trips. Additionally, Tesla’s safety data shows that a major crash involving supervised FSD occurs every 5.3 million miles, demonstrating the safety benefit of FSD.
Tesla Robotaxi Incident Data
Data on the 14 robotaxi collisions is publicly available from the NHTSA. Many collisions occurred at very low or zero speed, or the robotaxi came to a stop before the collision. The reports do not attribute fault, and Tesla’s robotaxi collision data is actually quite impressive.
| Data Source | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration |
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What it Means for Tesla Investors
The robotaxi data isn’t perfect, and the outcome of the March 9 deadline is uncertain. However, the current data is a lot better than some headlines might suggest. Investors should take a nuanced view of the data and consider the context and improvements in FSD technology.
As the deadline approaches, Tesla investors will be watching closely to see how the data affects the company’s stock price and overall performance. With the robotaxi technology continuing to evolve, investors will be looking for signs of improvement and a clear path forward for Tesla’s autonomous driving ambitions.
“The data is certainly meaningful, but it’s essential not to overplay or underplay its significance. Tesla investors should take a nuanced view and consider the context and improvements in FSD technology.” – Expert US Journalist
