The mobile industry’s plans to beam internet directly to cellphones via satellite just hit a snag, with usage forecast to be lower than expected.
Research firm expects monthly active satellite communication (satcom) users to reach over **130 million** by 2031, but a significant portion of that growth will be driven by new mobile network operators (MNOs) launching services and the entry of new satellite operators like AST SpaceMobile. These developments will certainly lead to substantial growth in the direct-to-cellular (D2C) arena.
Direct-to-cell growth in the doldrums
While D2C growth isn’t entirely stalled, forecasts suggest it won’t reach the previously predicted heights. This is largely due to factors like the high latency associated with satellite connections, which can hinder real-time applications like video streaming and online gaming. Additionally, the cost of setting up and maintaining satellite infrastructure, as well as the environmental impact of launching satellites, are also significant challenges that need to be addressed.
6G on the horizon
In contrast, 6G services are expected to take off at a rapid pace, growing from just **4.6 million** users in 2029 to **2.9 billion** by 2035. This is largely driven by the increasing demand for faster and more reliable connections, as well as the potential for 6G to support emerging technologies like the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence.
What this means is that while D2C growth may not be as rapid as initially anticipated, there are still significant opportunities for innovation and investment in the space. Meanwhile, 6G is shaping up to be a major driver of growth in the mobile industry, with a vast array of potential applications and use cases waiting to be explored. As the industry continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these two trends unfold and interact with one another.
